Monsoon Covers Entire Country Ahead of Schedule

 The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on June 29, 2025, that the southwest monsoon has covered the entire country, reaching all regions, including Delhi, Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh, and Haryana, nine days ahead of its typical July 8 schedule. This marks the fastest monsoon progression since 2020, bringing much-needed relief from scorching summer temperatures and promising significant benefits for agriculture and the economy.

The monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 24, eight days earlier than its usual June 1 onset, marking the earliest arrival since 2009. Favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, including a low-pressure area over the Arabian Sea and reduced Himalayan snow cover, accelerated the monsoon’s advance across southern, central, and northeastern states. After a brief stall from May 29 to June 12, the monsoon regained momentum, sweeping through central and northern India, covering Delhi a day earlier than its expected June 30 arrival.

Why It Matters

The early and widespread monsoon is a boon for India’s $4 trillion economy, which relies heavily on the June-to-September rains for nearly 70% of its annual rainfall. Approximately 50% of India’s farmland depends on these rains for irrigation, making timely monsoon arrival critical for sowing summer crops like rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, and sugarcane. The IMD’s forecast of above-normal rainfall—106% of the long-period average (LPA) of 87 cm—further raises hopes for a robust kharif season, potentially boosting crop yields and rural incomes.

Ashwini Bansod, vice president for commodities research at Phillip Capital India, noted that the early onset will allow farmers in southern and central states to begin sowing earlier, potentially increasing agricultural output. This is particularly significant after June’s rainfall deficit of 147.2 mm compared to the normal 165.3 mm, which had raised concerns about delayed planting. The recent surge has turned this shortfall into a 9% surplus for the month, setting an optimistic tone for July.

Regional Impacts and Forecasts

The IMD has issued an orange alert for several districts in Himachal Pradesh, warning of heavy rainfall, potential flash floods, and landslides. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is also expected in northwest, central, east, and northeast India over the next seven days, with isolated extremely heavy rainfall predicted for Odisha and Gujarat on June 25. While these rains will aid agriculture, they also pose risks of flooding and disruptions in some areas.

The monsoon’s early coverage is attributed to stronger-than-usual cross-equatorial flow and increased moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal. However, the IMD cautions that while central and southern India are likely to see above-normal rainfall, the northeast may experience below-normal precipitation, which could affect local farming.

Looking Ahead

The early monsoon has already brought relief to cities like Delhi, where temperatures had soared to 42.3°C in mid-May. The IMD forecasts a gradual cooling trend in the coming days, with light to moderate rain and thunderstorms expected in the capital. For farmers and policymakers, the focus now shifts to managing water resources and mitigating flood risks while capitalizing on the early rains to maximize agricultural productivity.

As India braces for a potentially robust monsoon season, the government’s investments in weather forecasting systems, such as the Monsoon Mission and High Performance Computing-based models, are proving their worth. These advancements have improved predictions, helping farmers and authorities prepare